Orders of Magnitude
Orders of Magnitude
Contents
Total Mass
Current Estimates
The Way Up
By The Numbers
Upping Our Tempo
Gains For All
__
Speaking of Mars and Lunar objectives – was that what we were talking about? – it might be helpful to take a look at how our current space operations need to scale.
In order to achieve a meaningful offworld presence fundamental numbers are in play; orders of magnitude increases to what we’re doing, and what we’re capable of doing. These numbers are where the rubber meets the road, so to speak.
Or, in this case, where the LOX (Liquid Oxygen) meets the rocket fuel.
What might be needed to really make space an everyday reality?
Total Mass
The total mass of objects in space right now is roughly 8,000 tons. That’s what’s left up there of what’s been launched since 1957.
Nothing to sneeze at.
For comparison, a big American freight locomotive weighs in at around 200 tons. Imagine the energy it took to throw the equivalent of 40 of those suckers all the way up into orbit. Launch them so fast and so hard that they actually stayed up there.
That’s what we’ve been doing, as a world, for the last sixty years.
So it can be done.
Now. Let’s consider what’s needed.
Current Estimates
Estimates for an ongoing Moon and Mars presence, with related operations, could require us sending from 1 to 5 million tons into space. Let alone orbital interests. Bigger better space stations will “weigh” in with their needs (badump bump), adding to the overall.
Those are big numbers.
In fact, to give it a real-world reference, the Empire State Building is about a third of a million tons of steel and concrete. A goal of 1 to 5 million tons would be like putting 3 to 15 Empire State Buildings into orbit.
Split the difference and that’s a little over 300x the mass of what’s up there now. Which means, at the rate we’ve been going, around 18,000 years to make a multi-million ton target.
Clearly we’ve got to step up the pace.
The Way Up
Best way is with massively bigger launch systems, coupled with more frequent launches. SpaceX’s Starship is what we might consider the first of what will be the next generation of massive-lift options. Starship, at full burn, can snatch the weight of one of the aforementioned locomotives and send it to orbit.
Yep.
Let’s pause for a moment on that one.
Next time you’re standing near a big freight engine, stop to really absorb what you’re looking at. How heavy it is. Touch it if you can. Maybe break off a piece of iron between thumb and forefinger, just to get a feel for that much mass. (Kidding; unless you’re The Hulk you probably can’t do that.) Now imagine what it would take to hoist one of those – nay, hurl it – fast enough and high enough to send it into orbit.
Starship can do that.
By The Numbers
Bringing it a little closer to the present, Falcon Heavy, current workhorse and heavy-lift champion in the SpaceX fleet, can hoist over 60 tons if push comes to shove (literally). That’s not a locomotive, but it’s about equal to one MBT (Main Battle Tank). Send up an American M1 Abrams, or a South Korean K2 Black Panther, or an Israeli Merkava, or a German Leopard 2 – your choice. Book a few flights on the Falcon, send up one of each and have a tank battle in space.
That might be kind of cool, actually. Imagine the recoil dynamics; tanks madly pinwheeling in all directions.
Of course that would really add to the space junk problem.
But we digress. A little.
Here’s where it relates. By the numbers, Starship could get a comparable 8,000 tons into orbit (what we have up there now) in 40 goes. That 1 to 5 million ton target? Call it 12,000 launches at max load.
If we wanted to do that in a year we’d need a fleet of mighty Starships thundering skyward 30+ times a day, every day, including National Donut Day.
Yes, space waits for no holiday.
Upping Our Tempo
At this stage those numbers are general and speculative, but they’re in an expected range, which points to one absolute certainty:
We’ve got to elevate our game.
To secure our space future we need to be prepared to push harder, move faster, think bigger. Disrupt our tendency to take it slow and stare inward.
It’s important. And it will be worth it.
Gains For All
As is said, the rising tide lifts all boats. If we’re gaining in space, we’re gaining across the board. There may be lags; when we have our first base on the moon it doesn’t mean other world problems will be instantly solved.
But it’s a guarantee they will be.
With big gains come the resources and the knowledge to solve not just the current problems, but bigger problems still.
(That also works in reverse. It’s a guarantee that if we don’t expand outward we’ll collapse inward.)
Forward, not back. Always attaining, always achieving, always a new win, a new goal ahead.
At this stage of human existence we’re too close, too much has been done already, to do otherwise.
Our estimation of effort must be in line with the future we demand.
Good news is, if there’s one thing we humans have proven adept at, it’s overcoming challenges and achieving great things.
Increased orders of magnitude?
Bring it.
Want to hear from us Friday mornings?
Every Friday our chief correspondent, Tai Rade (you’ll love her take on things), sends out a recap of the week in space.
#FortySuns
The Forty Suns book is available on Amazon: